Leading automakers Maruti Suzuki India, Hyundai and Tata Motors reported a double-digit increase in dispatches to dealers in April as the demand remained robust especially for the sports utility vehicles. The country's largest car maker Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) said its domestic passenger vehicle wholesales rose 13 per cent to 137,320 units last month as against 121,995 units in April 2022. Sales of mini cars, comprising Alto and S-Presso, fell 18 per cent to 14,110 units as compared with 17,137 units a year ago.
The automobile sector has started seeing volume growth, the crucial economy segment included. Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) could be a big beneficiary as the country's largest passenger vehicle (PV) maker has seen several favourable developments including volume recovery. Demand for its new sports utility vehicles (SUVs) appears to be good, and the company has 4 lakh outstanding orders by April 2023, (up from 3.6 lakhs in January 2023). Siam (Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers) estimates that passenger vehicle demand would grow by 5-7 per cent in the 2023-24 financial year (FY24) and MSIL is likely to beat the market growth.
Currency volatility to have negative impact of 275 bps
Even as rising crude oil prices, trade war fears and a sliding rupee cast a shadow on market sentiment, Nischal Maheshwari, chief executive officer for institutional equities and advisory at Centrum Broking, tells Puneet Wadhwa that in the next one year, the outcome of the 2019 general election is a bigger challenge for the market.
However, the budget arithmetic is slightly optimistic.
The report said forward-looking surveys and economic indicators along with rising business confidence provided hope that the decline in private corporate investment 'could be arrested' in 2014-15 and fresh investments of over Rs 1.2 lakh crore (Rs 1.2 trillion) 'could be realised'.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is setting up a greenfield tractor plant in Mohali near Punjab. Fueled by a strong domestic demand, the expansion is the first in a decade by the world's largest tractor maker. In 2012, the company had set up a facility at Zaheerabad in Telangana.
'In FY23, PV sales are expected to end the year at a record 3.8 million units, up 26 per cent. In FY24, however, the industry is expecting 5-7 per cent volume growth'
'People are doing a lot of trading.' 'Short-term euphoria can be seen.' 'Retail participation is best through MFs and PMS.'
Expect a more modest out-turn of around 5 per cent (if not less) because of the longer-term scarring effects of the Covid shock, the sharply slowing growth in the pre-Covid years and some scepticism about the growth-efficacy of some of recent official policy initiatives, explains Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the government.
According to Ajai Sahai, director-general and CEO of Federation of Indian Export Organisations, rising cases are a cause for concern as it adds to the uncertainty and may impact exports.
'Waiting for a market correction and optimising entry time in the markets will be akin to missing the woods for the trees.'
The Finance Ministry on Thursday said the growth rate in the current financial year will accelerate to 5.8 per cent, better than previous estimates, saying the green shoots of economic recovery are now visible.
'Last Saturday, the largest number of people travelled by air on a single day!' 'There is a kind of hunger among consumers to spend as they have been confined to their homes and not spending for almost 2 years.'
Fitch Solutions on Thursday said the new climate targets announced at the COP26 summit by Prime minister Narendra Modi pose an upside risk to its outlook for renewable growth in the country. With the new targets, it expected to see attempts to alleviate the issues regarding supply chains, manufacturing and project development that have long plagued renewable proliferation.
The automobile sector is considered a good indicator of economic health. It has a very long value chain, from primary materials, like metals, glass and plastic, to value-added high-end electronic components, specialised alloys, and software.
India's economy is expected to grow 7.5-8 per cent this fiscal year with exports playing a key role in the country's success story, CII president TV Narendran said on Monday. However, he said the country needs to remain prepared for any fallout of next wave of COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. "We are confident that the economy can retain a high growth trajectory this year. "So, we are very optimistic on the export front. "Exports will be a key component of India's success story going forward," Narendran said.
'The pipeline of new industrial projects is the best I've seen in the last 10 years, and it looks solid enough to sustain for at least a few quarters,' points out Naushad Forbes, adding, 'It is only when we get back to the same labour force participation we saw before Covid that the economy will have truly recovered.'
India's GDP estimates for 2020-21 show that the economy is expected to perform much better than earlier projections by different agencies, indicating a sustained V-shape post-lockdown recovery, experts said. The first Advance Estimates (AE) by the National Statistics Office (NSO) has projected a contraction of 7.7 per cent in the real GDP during 2020-21. This was better than the projections by certain international agencies like the IMF and World Bank.
China's economy is in transition, with rising wage costs and massive overcapacity.
Rising crude oil prices and muted passenger traffic in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) have raised concerns about the profitability of listed aviation players. These two concerns have caused the stock of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), the largest player in the sector, to slip by 11 per cent since its highs at the end of July. Nuvama Research expects yields to cool down in the near term due to seasonality, rising crude oil prices, and higher capacity.
'The potential headwind is that the Indian economy is likely to see a slowdown in growth rates over the next two years.'
Gold, forex assets, IT sector, pharma. Devangshu Datta explains why each of these is a good hedge against market shocks at this time.
'With Trump, the relationship was very transactional, whereas with President Biden it is very structured.'
'Thankfully, most investors in India have now seen through this false narrative and are once again deploying their hard-earned money.
At present, less than one per cent of manufacturing GDP comes from automation in India.
While sales of compact cars, including models such as Swift, Celerio, Ignis, Baleno and Dzire declined, sales of utility vehicles, including Vitara Brezza, S-Cross and Ertiga, increased 26.3 per cent to 19,177 units as compared to 15,178 in the year-ago month.
'The force of reforms. The force of investment. The force of formalisation. The force of digital and green technology. And the force of youth and entrepreneurship. I am convinced that these 5 forces will propel India's rise over the next several decades,' predicts Kumar Mangalam Birla, chairman, Aditya Birla group.
'The Indian economy and the Indian financial sector today remain resilient and much better placed.'
A spate of recent orders under the Indigenously Designed Developed and Manufactured (IDDM) category have led to investor focus on defence stocks. Actually, the defence index has been an outperformer for a long while with public sector undertakings (PSUs) like Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Bharat Electronics (BEL), Bharat Dynamics (BDL), Garden Reach Shipbuilders Engineers (GRSE), Cochin Shipyard and Goa Shipyard being beneficiaries of the policy.
A day after global brokerage firm Macquarie painted a rosy picture of the Indian economy and raised its target level for the stock indices for the next 12 months, Goldman Sachs said India is set to overtake China and become the fastest-growing emerging market during 2016-18.
The third-quarter financials didn't excite market watchers. But equity investors can still make money if they invest in the right stocks.
'We continue to believe that the global economy will narrowly avoid a recession, despite expecting the US, Canada, and most of Europe to fall into recession at some point over the next year or so.'
Whatever the critics may say, the numbers suggest that India continues to be a favourite destination for foreign investors.
'You have to be a total anti-national bozo to shut down the Nokia plant in Sriperumbudur, which was the first large manufacturing plant for mobile phones in India.' 'Why was the unit shut down? Because of somebody's ego.'
Naik is passionate about protecting India's manufacturing sector from the onslaught of Chinese imports.
India has the lowest labour force participation rate in South Asia and one of the lowest in the world, points out Aakar Patel.
Indian govt is trying hard to get global investors to invest in the country.
'Internet, healthcare and life insurance are a few sectors which offer solid long-term decadal potential.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday announced a new job creation scheme by giving subsidy to those establishments that make new hires. The subsidy would be to cover for retirement fund contributions by employees as well as employers for two years, she said. Employees contribution (12 per cent of wages) and employer's contribution (12 per cent of wages) totalling 24 per cent of wages would be given to establishments for two years, she said. Under the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana, every Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO)-registered establishment taking new employees would get this subsidy.
